Educational only: Work and pay decision support, not tax, legal, financial or career advice.
Privacy: No account is required. Tool inputs and results stay in this browser. Anonymous categorical usage analytics send only governed page, tool, cluster and action identifiers; tool inputs and results are never sent. Error monitoring is disabled. Optional saved state stays only on this device.
Update policy: Reviewed when formulas or official dependencies change.
Scope: Market-neutral work and pay planning using your own assumptions.
What this calculator helps you decide
Best for
Comparing two job options using a bounded two-state uncertainty model.
Outputs
Expected value for each option, lower entered outcomes and expected-value spread.
Start here
Enter two horizon values and one probability per option; the remainder stays normalized.
- Close-intent boundary
- Do not use this to make a deterministic pay-and-benefits comparison; use Job Offer Comparison Calculator.
Compare offers and work arrangements
Expected Job Value: expected value for each option
Expected value for each option, lower entered outcomes and expected-value spread.
Two options with two explicit states each
Enter one probability per option; the second probability is normalized to the visible remainder so each option always sums to 100%.
Your numbers stay in this browser
Probability assigned to option A state 1; state 2 is the visible remainder.
Entered horizon value for option A state 1.
Probability assigned to option B state 1; state 2 is the visible remainder.
Entered horizon value for option B state 1.
Other-state values and normalized probabilitiesOpen the assumptions you are less likely to change on every comparison.
Canonical remainder: 1 minus option A state 1 probability.
Entered horizon value for option A state 2.
Canonical remainder: 1 minus option B state 1 probability.
Entered horizon value for option B state 2.
Calculated result
Expected values and lower entered outcomes remain visible beside the spread.
Use one currency consistently across all inputs.
PDF and CSV exports stay on this device. Clean page links contain no inputs.
Scenario comparison
Each row names the assumption axis changed from the baseline.
ScenarioResultDifference
Entered scenario3,750.00Baseline
Option A likely-state probability: 0.857,250.003,500.00
Save these results, change an input, then compare the updated figures with this baseline.
The baseline is temporary in this tab and is not added to shared scenario links or generated reports.
Calculation details
View calculation detailsView the formulas and inputs used for these results.
Option A expected-value advantage
Expected-value spread
expectedValueSpread = optionAExpectedValue − optionBExpectedValue3,750.00 currency unitsResult3,750.00 currency units
Option A probability-weighted value minus option B. Displayed using the engine-rounded value.
Option A expected-value advantage formula →Option A expected value
Option A expected value
optionAExpectedValue = optionAState1Probability × optionAState1Value + optionAState2Probability × optionAState2Value86,000.00 currency unitsResult86,000.00 currency units
Sum of option A state probability times state horizon value. Displayed using the engine-rounded value.
Option A expected value formula →Option B expected value
Option B expected value
optionBExpectedValue = optionBState1Probability × optionBState1Value + optionBState2Probability × optionBState2Value82,250.00 currency unitsResult82,250.00 currency units
Sum of option B state probability times state horizon value. Displayed using the engine-rounded value.
Option B expected value formula →Option A lower entered value
Option A lower value
optionAMinimumValue = min(optionAState1Value, optionAState2Value)30,000.00 currency unitsResult30,000.00 currency units
Lower of the two entered option A state values. Displayed using the engine-rounded value.
Option A lower entered value formula →Option B lower entered value
Option B lower value
optionBMinimumValue = min(optionBState1Value, optionBState2Value)30,000.00 currency unitsResult30,000.00 currency units
Lower of the two entered option B state values. Displayed using the engine-rounded value.
Option B lower entered value formula →Inputs used
- Option A likely-state probability
- 0.8
- Option A state 1 horizon value
- 100,000.00 currency units
- Option A other-state probability
- 0.2
- Option A state 2 horizon value
- 30,000.00 currency units
- Option B likely-state probability
- 0.95
- Option B state 1 horizon value
- 85,000.00 currency units
- Option B other-state probability
- 0.05
- Option B state 2 horizon value
- 30,000.00 currency units
Open this calculator with preset values
This calculator supports documented, shareable scenario URLs. Compatible assistants and applications can construct links using the parameters below.
Scenario values are visible in the URL, calculations run in the browser, and optional saved state stays only on this device. Anyone you share the URL with can read those numbers, so do not include private or identifying data.
| Parameter | Meaning | Unit | Allowed values | Presence | Default |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| optionAState1Probability | Probability assigned to option A state 1; state 2 is the visible remainder. | decimal | 0 to 1 | Required | 0.8 |
| optionAState1Value | Entered horizon value for option A state 1. | currency units | -100000000 to 100000000 | Required | 100000 |
| optionAState2Probability | Canonical remainder: 1 minus option A state 1 probability. | decimal | 0 to 1 | Required | 0.2 |
| optionAState2Value | Entered horizon value for option A state 2. | currency units | -100000000 to 100000000 | Required | 30000 |
| optionBState1Probability | Probability assigned to option B state 1; state 2 is the visible remainder. | decimal | 0 to 1 | Required | 0.95 |
| optionBState1Value | Entered horizon value for option B state 1. | currency units | -100000000 to 100000000 | Required | 85000 |
| optionBState2Probability | Canonical remainder: 1 minus option B state 1 probability. | decimal | 0 to 1 | Required | 0.05 |
| optionBState2Value | Entered horizon value for option B state 2. | currency units | -100000000 to 100000000 | Required | 30000 |
Expected Job Value: expected value for each option
Use expected value beside the lower entered outcomes, not as a guaranteed choice.
Formula summary
- Primary formula
- expectedValueSpread = optionAExpectedValue − optionBExpectedValue
Data used here
- The estimate uses your inputs and the work-value formula documented in the methodology.
Decision checks
Act on the result
Confirm the two states are mutually exclusive and use one consistent horizon.
Stress-test the decision
Retest probabilities and lower-state values.
When this estimate can be misleading
- Two states cannot capture every outcome.
- Expected value does not describe risk tolerance or guarantee an outcome.
- No tax, job-market probability or local policy is inferred.
- Use expected value beside the lower entered outcomes, not as a guaranteed choice.
Educational estimate, not advice. See all assumptions & limitations →
Related reading
Use these practical guides to interpret the decision and its assumptions.
- How to use the Expected Job Value calculator
Compare probability-weighted horizon values for two user-entered job options without forecasting outcomes.
Read guide
Frequently asked questions
Which job option has the higher probability-weighted horizon value?
Confirm the two states are mutually exclusive and use one consistent horizon.
Which official source and period does this use?
This market-neutral tool does not use an official local policy rule.
Can I share or save a scenario?
Tool inputs and results stay in this browser. Anonymous categorical usage analytics send only governed page, tool, cluster and action identifiers; tool inputs and results are never sent. Error monitoring is disabled. Optional saved state stays only on this device.
What should stay consistent when I compare the options?
Keep the time basis, units and included costs consistent across options, then verify the assumptions that create the largest difference.