Make the horizon and outcomes genuinely comparable
Choose the same horizon for both jobs and express every outcome on the same value basis. Each option’s entered probabilities must total 100%; otherwise the weighted sum does not describe a complete scenario set.
Probabilities should remain visible assumptions. The calculator does not estimate them, and a precise percentage should not be mistaken for certainty.
- Use the same time horizon and currency basis for A and B.
- Define outcomes consistently, including what the low case represents.
- Check that each option’s probabilities sum to 100%.
- Keep non-financial factors outside the numeric value unless you can state a defensible, consistent input.
Weight each outcome, then preserve the range
Expected value = Σ(outcome value × entered probability). For Option A, 80% × 100,000 plus 20% × 30,000 equals 86,000. For Option B, 95% × 85,000 plus 5% × 30,000 equals 82,250.
The expected value compresses the scenarios into one average. Minimum and maximum outcomes remain important because two options with similar averages can expose you to different ranges.
Worked example: average and range tell different stories
| Choice | Entered outcomes and calculator result | How to read the choice |
|---|---|---|
| Option A | 80% × 100,000 + 20% × 30,000 = 86,000 | It has the higher expected value and the wider 30,000–100,000 entered range. |
| Option B | 95% × 85,000 + 5% × 30,000 = 82,250 | It has the lower expected value and the narrower 30,000–85,000 entered range. |
| Expected-value spread | 3,750 in favour of A | This is a difference between weighted scenarios, not proof that A will pay more. |
Vary uncertain assumptions and add a qualitative overlay
Test the probability and outcome that most affects the 3,750 spread. If a small plausible change reverses the ordering, the numeric distinction is fragile and should be presented that way.
The calculation does not model risk preference, tax, inflation, satisfaction, working conditions or correlated outcomes. Compare those separately; never say the higher expected value “wins.”
How the Expected Job Value Calculator calculation works
expectedValueSpread = optionAExpectedValue − optionBExpectedValue
- expectedValueSpread
- Option A expected-value advantage
- optionAExpectedValue
- Option A expected value
- optionBExpectedValue
- Option B expected value
The calculator and article use this relationship consistently; the article does not reimplement the calculation.
optionAExpectedValue = optionAState1Probability × optionAState1Value + optionAState2Probability × optionAState2Value
- optionAExpectedValue
- Option A expected value
- optionAState1Probability
- Option A likely-state probability
- optionAState1Value
- Option A state 1 horizon value
- optionAState2Probability
- Option A other-state probability
- optionAState2Value
- Option A state 2 horizon value
The calculator and article use this relationship consistently; the article does not reimplement the calculation.
optionBExpectedValue = optionBState1Probability × optionBState1Value + optionBState2Probability × optionBState2Value
- optionBExpectedValue
- Option B expected value
- optionBState1Probability
- Option B likely-state probability
- optionBState1Value
- Option B state 1 horizon value
- optionBState2Probability
- Option B other-state probability
- optionBState2Value
- Option B state 2 horizon value
The calculator and article use this relationship consistently; the article does not reimplement the calculation.
optionAMinimumValue = min(optionAState1Value, optionAState2Value)
- optionAMinimumValue
- Option A lower entered value
- optionAState1Value
- Option A state 1 horizon value
- optionAState2Value
- Option A state 2 horizon value
The calculator and article use this relationship consistently; the article does not reimplement the calculation.
optionBMinimumValue = min(optionBState1Value, optionBState2Value)
- optionBMinimumValue
- Option B lower entered value
- optionBState1Value
- Option B state 1 horizon value
- optionBState2Value
- Option B state 2 horizon value
The calculator and article use this relationship consistently; the article does not reimplement the calculation.
Compare option A at 80% of 100,000 and 20% of 30,000 with option B at 95% of 85,000 and 5% of 30,000.
Inputs used in the Expected Job Value Calculator worked example
| Input | Entered value | What it represents | Source class |
|---|---|---|---|
| Option A likely-state probability | 0.8 decimal | Probability assigned to option A state 1; state 2 is the visible remainder. | user assumption |
| Option A state 1 horizon value | 100,000 currency units | Entered horizon value for option A state 1. | user assumption |
| Option A other-state probability | 0.2 decimal | Canonical remainder: 1 minus option A state 1 probability. | user assumption |
| Option A state 2 horizon value | 30,000 currency units | Entered horizon value for option A state 2. | user assumption |
| Option B likely-state probability | 0.95 decimal | Probability assigned to option B state 1; state 2 is the visible remainder. | user assumption |
| Option B state 1 horizon value | 85,000 currency units | Entered horizon value for option B state 1. | user assumption |
| Option B other-state probability | 0.05 decimal | Canonical remainder: 1 minus option B state 1 probability. | user assumption |
| Option B state 2 horizon value | 30,000 currency units | Entered horizon value for option B state 2. | user assumption |
Worked example: Expected Job Value Calculator
The calculator normalizes the inputs above, applies Expected-value spread, and returns the outputs below. The displayed result is therefore reproducible in the linked calculator.
| Measure | Result | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Option A expected-value advantage | 3,750 currency units over the horizon | Option A probability-weighted value minus option B. |
| Option A expected value | 86,000 currency units over the horizon | Sum of option A state probability times state horizon value. |
| Option B expected value | 82,250 currency units over the horizon | Sum of option B state probability times state horizon value. |
| Option A lower entered value | 30,000 currency units over the horizon | Lower of the two entered option A state values. |
| Option B lower entered value | 30,000 currency units over the horizon | Lower of the two entered option B state values. |
Interpret the result and test Option A likely-state probability
- Option A expected-value advantage: 3,750 currency units over the horizon. Option A probability-weighted value minus option B.
- Option A expected value: 86,000 currency units over the horizon. Sum of option A state probability times state horizon value.
- Option B expected value: 82,250 currency units over the horizon. Sum of option B state probability times state horizon value.
- Option A lower entered value: 30,000 currency units over the horizon. Lower of the two entered option A state values.
- Option B lower entered value: 30,000 currency units over the horizon. Lower of the two entered option B state values.
| Result | Baseline | Changed-input scenario | How to read it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Option A expected-value advantage | 3,750 currency units over the horizon | 9,350 currency units over the horizon | Option A probability-weighted value minus option B. |
| Option A expected value | 86,000 currency units over the horizon | 91,600 currency units over the horizon | Sum of option A state probability times state horizon value. |
| Option B expected value | 82,250 currency units over the horizon | 82,250 currency units over the horizon | Sum of option B state probability times state horizon value. |
| Option A lower entered value | 30,000 currency units over the horizon | 30,000 currency units over the horizon | Lower of the two entered option A state values. |
| Option B lower entered value | 30,000 currency units over the horizon | 30,000 currency units over the horizon | Lower of the two entered option B state values. |
Checks that are specific to Expected Job Value Calculator
- Exactly two options and two states per option are used.
- Each state probability stays between 0 and 1.
- The second probability is normalized so each option sums to 1.
What this Expected Job Value Calculator guide includes and excludes
- Horizon values use the same basis for both options.
- States are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive.
- Probabilities and values are user judgments.
Sources and method boundary
- Expected Job Value Calculator methodology — Wage101 (accessed 2026-07-27): Canonical formulas, units, validation, calculator behavior and limitations.