Educational only: Work and pay decision support, not tax, legal, financial or career advice.
Privacy: No account is required. Tool inputs and results stay in this browser. Anonymous categorical usage analytics send only governed page, tool, cluster and action identifiers; tool inputs and results are never sent. Error monitoring is disabled. Optional saved state stays only on this device.
Update policy: Reviewed when formulas or official dependencies change.
Scope: Market-neutral work and pay planning using your own assumptions.
What this calculator helps you decide
Best for
Valuing four explicit RSU tranches with separate price and vesting assumptions.
Outputs
Scheduled value, probability-weighted value, expected units and risk gap.
Start here
Enter year, units, assumed price and vesting probability for each tranche.
- Close-intent boundary
- Do not use this to value stock options or a broad annual equity package; use Equity Compensation Value Calculator.
Compare benefits, equity and leave
RSU Vesting Value: scheduled value
Scheduled value, probability-weighted value, expected units and risk gap.
Four RSU vesting tranches
Enter year, units, assumed share price and vesting probability for each fixed tranche.
Your numbers stay in this browser
RSU units assigned to this tranche.
Your assumed share price when this tranche vests.
Your probability of this tranche vesting, as a decimal.
RSU units assigned to this tranche.
Later tranches and uncertainty assumptionsOpen the assumptions you are less likely to change on every comparison.
Whole-year offset for this vesting tranche.
Whole-year offset for this vesting tranche.
Your assumed share price when this tranche vests.
Your probability of this tranche vesting, as a decimal.
Whole-year offset for this vesting tranche.
RSU units assigned to this tranche.
Your assumed share price when this tranche vests.
Your probability of this tranche vesting, as a decimal.
Whole-year offset for this vesting tranche.
RSU units assigned to this tranche.
Your assumed share price when this tranche vests.
Your probability of this tranche vesting, as a decimal.
Calculated result
Scheduled value, expected units and probability-weighted value remain separate.
Use one currency consistently across all inputs.
PDF and CSV exports stay on this device. Clean page links contain no inputs.
Scenario comparison
Each row names the assumption axis changed from the baseline.
ScenarioResultDifference
Entered scenario19,300.00Baseline
Tranche 1 projected share price: 21.00 currency units19,550.00250.00
Save these results, change an input, then compare the updated figures with this baseline.
The baseline is temporary in this tab and is not added to shared scenario links or generated reports.
Calculation details
View calculation detailsView the formulas and inputs used for these results.
Probability-weighted RSU value
Probability-weighted value
totalProbabilityWeightedValue = Σ trancheUnits × trancheSharePrice × trancheProbability19,300.00 currency unitsResult19,300.00 currency units
Sum of each tranche’s units, assumed price and vesting probability. Displayed using the engine-rounded value.
Probability-weighted RSU value formula →Scheduled RSU value
Scheduled value
totalScheduledValue = Σ trancheUnits × trancheSharePrice23,000.00 currency unitsResult23,000.00 currency units
Sum of units multiplied by assumed share price before probability adjustment. Displayed using the engine-rounded value.
Scheduled RSU value formula →Expected vested units
Expected vested units
totalExpectedVestedUnits = Σ trancheUnits × trancheProbability850Result850
Sum of tranche units multiplied by vesting probability. Displayed using the engine-rounded value.
Expected vested units formula →Risk-adjustment gap
Risk-adjustment gap
totalRiskAdjustmentGap = totalScheduledValue − totalProbabilityWeightedValue3,700.00 currency unitsResult3,700.00 currency units
Scheduled value less probability-weighted value. Displayed using the engine-rounded value.
Risk-adjustment gap formula →Inputs used
- Tranche 1 vesting year
- 1
- Tranche 1 units
- 250
- Tranche 1 projected share price
- 20.00 currency units
- Tranche 1 vesting probability
- 1
- Tranche 2 vesting year
- 2
- Tranche 2 units
- 250
- Tranche 2 projected share price
- 22.00 currency units
- Tranche 2 vesting probability
- 0.9
- Tranche 3 vesting year
- 3
- Tranche 3 units
- 250
- Tranche 3 projected share price
- 24.00 currency units
- Tranche 3 vesting probability
- 0.8
- Tranche 4 vesting year
- 4
- Tranche 4 units
- 250
- Tranche 4 projected share price
- 26.00 currency units
- Tranche 4 vesting probability
- 0.7
Open this calculator with preset values
This calculator supports documented, shareable scenario URLs. Compatible assistants and applications can construct links using the parameters below.
Scenario values are visible in the URL, calculations run in the browser, and optional saved state stays only on this device. Anyone you share the URL with can read those numbers, so do not include private or identifying data.
| Parameter | Meaning | Unit | Allowed values | Presence | Default |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| tranche1Year | Whole-year offset for this vesting tranche. | years from now | 1 to 20 | Required | 1 |
| tranche1Units | RSU units assigned to this tranche. | units | 0.01 to 1000000000 | Required | 250 |
| tranche1SharePrice | Your assumed share price when this tranche vests. | currency units/share | 0 to 100000000 | Required | 20 |
| tranche1Probability | Your probability of this tranche vesting, as a decimal. | decimal | 0 to 1 | Required | 1 |
| tranche2Year | Whole-year offset for this vesting tranche. | years from now | 1 to 20 | Required | 2 |
| tranche2Units | RSU units assigned to this tranche. | units | 0.01 to 1000000000 | Required | 250 |
| tranche2SharePrice | Your assumed share price when this tranche vests. | currency units/share | 0 to 100000000 | Required | 22 |
| tranche2Probability | Your probability of this tranche vesting, as a decimal. | decimal | 0 to 1 | Required | 0.9 |
| tranche3Year | Whole-year offset for this vesting tranche. | years from now | 1 to 20 | Required | 3 |
| tranche3Units | RSU units assigned to this tranche. | units | 0.01 to 1000000000 | Required | 250 |
| tranche3SharePrice | Your assumed share price when this tranche vests. | currency units/share | 0 to 100000000 | Required | 24 |
| tranche3Probability | Your probability of this tranche vesting, as a decimal. | decimal | 0 to 1 | Required | 0.8 |
| tranche4Year | Whole-year offset for this vesting tranche. | years from now | 1 to 20 | Required | 4 |
| tranche4Units | RSU units assigned to this tranche. | units | 0.01 to 1000000000 | Required | 250 |
| tranche4SharePrice | Your assumed share price when this tranche vests. | currency units/share | 0 to 100000000 | Required | 26 |
| tranche4Probability | Your probability of this tranche vesting, as a decimal. | decimal | 0 to 1 | Required | 0.7 |
RSU Vesting Value: scheduled value
Treat probability-weighted value as an assumption-led scenario, not guaranteed equity.
Formula summary
- Primary formula
- totalProbabilityWeightedValue = Σ trancheUnits × trancheSharePrice × trancheProbability
Data used here
- The estimate uses your inputs and the work-value formula documented in the methodology.
Decision checks
Act on the result
Verify every tranche’s units, timing, assumed price and vesting probability.
Stress-test the decision
Retest share-price and vesting-probability assumptions.
When this estimate can be misleading
- No share-price forecast, tax, liquidity or plan rule is applied.
- Four fixed tranches do not model every vesting schedule.
- Probability-weighted value is not guaranteed value.
- Treat probability-weighted value as an assumption-led scenario, not guaranteed equity.
Educational estimate, not advice. See all assumptions & limitations →
Related reading
Use these practical guides to interpret the decision and its assumptions.
- How to use the RSU Vesting Value calculator
Value four user-entered RSU tranches without forecasting share prices, taxes or employer outcomes.
Read guide
Frequently asked questions
What scheduled and probability-weighted value do these four RSU tranches have?
Verify every tranche’s units, timing, assumed price and vesting probability.
Which official source and period does this use?
This market-neutral tool does not use an official local policy rule.
Can I share or save a scenario?
Tool inputs and results stay in this browser. Anonymous categorical usage analytics send only governed page, tool, cluster and action identifiers; tool inputs and results are never sent. Error monitoring is disabled. Optional saved state stays only on this device.
How should I validate the estimate before acting?
Use the estimate as a bounded planning range and replace assumptions with current work and pay records before committing.