Educational only: Work and pay decision support, not tax, legal, financial or career advice.
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Update policy: Reviewed when formulas or official dependencies change.
Scope: Market-neutral work and pay planning using your own assumptions.
What this calculator helps you decide
Best for
Separating option exercise cost, intrinsic value and realization uncertainty.
Outputs
Exercise cost, intrinsic value, probability-weighted value and break-even price.
Start here
Enter option count, exercisable fraction, strike, assumed price and probability.
- Close-intent boundary
- Do not use this to value RSU tranches or a broad annual equity package; use Equity Compensation Value Calculator.
Compare benefits, equity and leave
Stock Option Offer Value: exercise cost
Exercise cost, intrinsic value, probability-weighted value and break-even price.
Stock option offer assumptions
Enter the grant, exercise price, assumed future price, extra costs and realization probability.
Your numbers stay in this browser
Whole option count in the offer.
Fraction expected to become exercisable.
Exercise price per option.
Your assumed future share price.
Exercise costs and outcome uncertaintyOpen the assumptions you are less likely to change on every comparison.
Other entered costs of exercise.
Your chance of realizing the intrinsic value.
Calculated result
Exercise cost, intrinsic value and probability-weighted value are shown separately.
Use one currency consistently across all inputs.
PDF and CSV exports stay on this device. Clean page links contain no inputs.
Scenario comparison
Each row names the assumption axis changed from the baseline.
ScenarioResultDifference
Entered scenario4,800.00Baseline
Projected future share price: 19.00 currency units5,400.00600.00
Save these results, change an input, then compare the updated figures with this baseline.
The baseline is temporary in this tab and is not added to shared scenario links or generated reports.
Calculation details
View calculation detailsView the formulas and inputs used for these results.
Probability-weighted option value
Probability-weighted value
probabilityWeightedValue = projectedIntrinsicValue × realizationProbability4,800.00 currency unitsResult4,800.00 currency units
Projected intrinsic value multiplied by realization probability. Displayed using the engine-rounded value.
Probability-weighted option value formula →Projected intrinsic value
Projected intrinsic value
projectedIntrinsicValue = max(projectedGrossShareValue − totalExerciseCost, 0)6,000.00 currency unitsResult6,000.00 currency units
Projected gross share value less exercise costs, floored at zero. Displayed using the engine-rounded value.
Projected intrinsic value formula →Total exercise cost
Total exercise cost
totalExerciseCost = optionCount × exercisableFraction × strikePrice + additionalExerciseCosts7,500.00 currency unitsResult7,500.00 currency units
Exercisable options times strike price plus extra costs. Displayed using the engine-rounded value.
Total exercise cost formula →Break-even share price
Break-even share price
breakEvenSharePrice = strikePrice + additionalExerciseCosts ÷ exercisableOptionCount10.00 currency unitsResult10.00 currency units
Strike price plus extra costs per exercisable option. Displayed using the engine-rounded value.
Break-even share price formula →Underwater amount per share
Underwater amount
underwaterAmountPerShare = max(strikePrice − projectedFutureSharePrice, 0)0.00 currency unitsResult0.00 currency units
Strike price less projected share price, floored at zero. Displayed using the engine-rounded value.
Underwater amount per share formula →Inputs used
- Option count
- 1,000
- Exercisable fraction
- 0.75
- Strike price
- 10.00 currency units
- Projected future share price
- 18.00 currency units
- Additional exercise costs
- 0.00 currency units
- Realization probability
- 0.8
Open this calculator with preset values
This calculator supports documented, shareable scenario URLs. Compatible assistants and applications can construct links using the parameters below.
Scenario values are visible in the URL, calculations run in the browser, and optional saved state stays only on this device. Anyone you share the URL with can read those numbers, so do not include private or identifying data.
| Parameter | Meaning | Unit | Allowed values | Presence | Default |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| optionCount | Whole option count in the offer. | options | 1 to 1000000000 | Required | 1000 |
| exercisableFraction | Fraction expected to become exercisable. | decimal | 0 to 1 | Required | 0.75 |
| strikePrice | Exercise price per option. | currency units/share | 0 to 100000000 | Required | 10 |
| projectedFutureSharePrice | Your assumed future share price. | currency units/share | 0 to 100000000 | Required | 18 |
| additionalExerciseCosts | Other entered costs of exercise. | currency units | 0 to 100000000 | Required | 0 |
| realizationProbability | Your chance of realizing the intrinsic value. | decimal | 0 to 1 | Required | 0.8 |
Stock Option Offer Value: exercise cost
Keep exercise cost separate from intrinsic and probability-weighted value.
Formula summary
- Primary formula
- probabilityWeightedValue = projectedIntrinsicValue × realizationProbability
Data used here
- The estimate uses your inputs and the work-value formula documented in the methodology.
Decision checks
Act on the result
Confirm strike price, exercisable fraction and all extra exercise costs.
Stress-test the decision
Retest future share price and realization probability.
When this estimate can be misleading
- No share-price forecast, tax, expiration, dilution or plan term is applied.
- The result is not a valuation or exercise recommendation.
- Liquidity and concentration risk are outside the model.
- Keep exercise cost separate from intrinsic and probability-weighted value.
Educational estimate, not advice. See all assumptions & limitations →
Related reading
Use these practical guides to interpret the decision and its assumptions.
- How to use the Stock Option offer Value calculator
Estimate option value from user-entered grant, exercise, future-price and probability assumptions without forecasting markets or tax.
Read guide
Frequently asked questions
What intrinsic and probability-weighted value could this stock option offer have?
Confirm strike price, exercisable fraction and all extra exercise costs.
Which official source and period does this use?
This market-neutral tool does not use an official local policy rule.
Can I share or save a scenario?
Tool inputs and results stay in this browser. Anonymous categorical usage analytics send only governed page, tool, cluster and action identifiers; tool inputs and results are never sent. Error monitoring is disabled. Optional saved state stays only on this device.
How should I validate the estimate before acting?
Use the estimate as a bounded planning range and replace assumptions with current work and pay records before committing.